"Upon further review, the decision on the field..."

Wouldn’t it be nice to go back and look at our “2009 calls”? While football officials have this option we as individuals do not. Probably if we learned anything about the year 2009 it was that it was a very uncertain time. This month I thought I would take a look at what did occur in 2009 and what we might expect in 2010.

What tack do you think the economy will take? The year 2009 while painful, finally brought some stability to the financial and housing markets. GDP was an overall minus 2.5 in 2009. Good news however, was that in the last 6 months it saw a 3% increase. GDP means more productions and more productions mean more job opportunities. Consumer and business confidence along with GDP will drive the recovery in 2010.

What will help the recovery of the economy? The housing industry’s tax credits will continue to be a plus for Wilson County. Increased home sales and developments will generate much needed tax revenues. With a cautious consumer, “Right Deals” will continue to bring consumers to markets. While controversial, the “cash for clunkers” program drove down inventories and generated sales. Lower inventories will cause an upswing in production and manufacturing. Pent up demand will assist the recovery in 2010.

What are the greatest threats to an economic recovery? Financial failures, armed conflict and loss of confidence drove down the 2009 economy. These events unfortunately still exist. In 2010, federal budget deficits, funding state and local governments and cost of a national health care program will have wild effects upon the national, state and local economies. The federal funded “floor” not expected in 2010 kept many state and local economies afloat.

When do you forecast the next up cycle? Numbers do indicate that late 2009 provided some stability. U.S. unemployment is projected to peak at 10.3% in 2010, followed by 7.6% in 2012 and maybe back in the 5-6% range in ten years. It took six years to bring down the rate from double digits to normal levels in the last recession. Tennessee’s rate usually is 1% below the national rate with Wilson County’s about a half point below the state level. The trend is at least moving in the right direction.

What it means to Wilson County? I believe that we must begin to look at the economy in terms of month to month and quarter to quarter. We will experience positive and negative spikes in next few years. Some economists call this the “new abnormal” having flat wages, and higher unemployment. Flatness in manufacturing will continue although our industries that produce high value products will continue to survive and eventually prosper. For lesser quality products we will service them through our warehouse and logistic industries.

Our community offers central location, quality of life and an able workforce. Our demographics are strong and we have an available inventory of facilities and land. When demand requires increased production and services we are prepared and will be successful.